Analysis of spot gold, crude oil, euro and pound market transactions on August 30

Huitong.com August 30th - On Wednesday (August 30th), the spot gold price continued to fluctuate in the European session. The US crude oil price fell slightly, the euro fluctuated against the US dollar, and the British pound oscillated downward. The following is an analysis of the gold, crude, euro, and sterling markets.

The focus of market speculation:

1. Pay close attention to the data of small non-agricultural ADP and GDP revisions in the US<br>Because the US will release important economic data in the day, it is no exaggeration to say that the trend of the day market is likely to be the data market, especially It is likely that the direction of the market will be clearly pointed out when several US data have the same direction of influence on the market.

Wednesday's data will guide the US non-farm payrolls data on Friday. If the data on Wednesday is not good, then the non-farm payrolls data on Friday may not be too good.

For Friday's non-agricultural employment report, Bloomberg expects the US non-farm payroll population to change to 180,000 in August after the seasonal adjustment, while the previous value is 209,000, and the predicted value is slightly less than the previous value.

2. Investors should pay attention to President Trump's speech on tax reform. <br>The market is still widely concerned about whether Trump's tax reform can be realized, and the question of Trump's tax reform is endless. During the New York time, US President Trump will deliver an important speech on tax reform in Missouri.

If he emphasizes his efforts to promote tax reform in his speech, this may boost market risk appetite. If he said in the tax reform, because the tax reform is more difficult, it may further delay the tax reform, and it is difficult to avoid the risk.

Recently, insiders of the US government have issued relatively optimistic comments on tax reform. U.S. House Speaker Ryan said that the difficulty of tax reform is lower than that of medical reform. It is imperative to complete the tax reform vote within the year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin also said that for tax reform, more tax cuts are better than less tax cuts. Long-term tax cuts are better than temporary tax cuts, but in any case better than no tax cuts.

3. Investors are paying attention to the news of changes in the US political situation. <br>The current market has extensive doubts about Trump. Trump removed his chief strategist and senior adviser, Bannon, and Trump’s unexpected speech on violence caused public outrage. He also said that even if the government closes, it will build a US-Mexico border wall.

Next, we don't know what Trump will say, but the financial market is very nervous about it. Investors may face the risk of unexpected comments from Trump at any time.

In addition, Trump's Tonguomen may continue to ferment. The Trump family is currently undergoing an in-depth investigation, and Trump’s eldest son and Trump’s son-in-law are under investigation.

In addition, the market will focus on the US debt ceiling in September, and the solution to the debt ceiling problem is still elusive. Goldman Sachs believes that the risk of closing the US government in October is more than 50%.

Spot gold

Gold technical analysis


In the gold weekly chart, we can see that the gold price trend is obviously more, the lower low point is rising continuously, the upper high point is rising continuously, and various technical indicators are also biased to the bulls, which implies that the current gold price is in an obvious In the bullish trend.

What is the effective resistance in the process of rising gold prices? We can see that a price-intensive interval formed in the last year (the blue position area in the picture) should have a certain resistance to the price. At the same time, the high point created by the US election last year, probably around 1337, should be the resistance to the rise in gold prices.


In the daily chart of the gold price, we can also see that the current price is in a clear upward trend. If we take the analysis of the gold price since last month. We can find that if the rise of gold price in July is the first wave of the new trend, then the rise of gold price in August may be the third wave of the new trend; the uptrend in July is a relatively simple form, that 8 The rise of the month will be a more complicated form. Can the current rise in the price of gold be divided according to such waves? We still verify by time.


In the gold hour chart, although the price of gold has been adjusted, we find that the current gold price is still in a significant bullish trend. If we make a Fibonacci retracement of the current gold price from last week's low to the current high, we find that the current price is adjusted to near the 38.2% retracement position. The 50% of the important support below is near the 1300 integer mark.

Gold short-term trading ideas: We still maintain a lot of ideas, waiting for low-end buy, pay close attention to the support of the 1300 mark. If the price is always above the 1300 mark, then the gold price is still expected to rise again to hit this week's new high.

Support: 1304, 1300, 1294, 1288, 1280
Resistance: 1313, 1320, 1326, 1330, 1337

More timely market analysis, welcome everyone to come to [Famous Strategy] Ask the author of this article.

crude

American oil technical analysis


In the US oil daily chart, the current price has fallen below the inclined neckline and is currently in a clear bearish trend. And the bar value of the lower MACD has also fallen below the zero axis, suggesting that the oil price has turned empty on the daily trend.


In the 4-hour chart of US oil prices, we can find that the current oil price is moving in the downward channel. After adjustment, the oil price is still expected to continue down the channel. (The picture shows possible reference trends)


In the hourly chart of US oil prices, we can find that the current oil price is running in the downward channel. It is worth mentioning that there is a sign of deviation from the MACD column below, but usually the price will reverse when the price deviates continuously, so the current deviation does not mean that the oil price will reverse. There are many signs that oil prices are expected to hit new lows. (The picture shows possible reference trends)

US oil short-term trading ideas: investors pay close attention to the impact of EIA inventory data on oil prices, the operation can choose empty orders after the price is close to the upper edge of the channel.

Support: 45.50, 45.00, 44.50, 44.00, 43.70
Resistance: 46.40, 47.00, 47.60, 48.00, 48.20

More timely market analysis, welcome everyone to come to [Famous Strategy] Ask the author of this article.

Euro against the dollar

Euro-dollar technical analysis


In the daily chart of the euro against the dollar, the price maintains a clear bullish uptrend, and many of the indicators that show long positions are no longer exhaustive. Through observation, we can find that when the price breaks through the intensive interval, it will generally back to the top of the intensive interval. After the interval in June this year is broken, the price will fall. After this price breaks through the flag-shaped finishing interval, it is also possible to back-test the top of the flag-shaped interval, which is near 1.1910.


In the Euro 4 hour chart, we can see that there is a more obvious five-wave rising pattern in the upward triangular channel in the figure. In general, there is an upward five-wave mode, and after the price has been adjusted, the price is still expected to restart. From the picture, when the price 60-day moving average (black line in the picture) keeps up with the price and the Bollinger band is close to narrowing, the euro will choose a new direction against the dollar and is expected to restart. (The picture shows possible reference trends)


In the EUR/USD hourly chart, we can see that the current short-term exchange rate seems to still have the downward adjustment of the downward adjustment, but below will also be supported by the resistance of the previous intensive range, investors pay attention to the support of the blue region. (The picture shows possible reference trends)

Short-term trading ideas for the euro against the dollar: In the process of falling prices, investors can choose the low-end buy operation. Above focus on the resistance of the 1.2000 mark, below the 1.1900 integer mark resistance.

Support: 1.1920, 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1840, 1.1820
Resistance: 1.1960, 1.1978, 1.2000, 1.2070, 1.2130

GBP to USD

GBP/USD technical analysis


In the GBP/USD daily chart, we can see that the current price has fallen back after hitting the black 60-day moving average in the chart. The 60-day moving average is still an important resistance to the exchange rate. Judging from the overall trend of the daily chart of the pound, the trend of the pound is more volatile. From a fundamental point of view, the fundamentals of the UK itself are not very good, and the economic data is not good enough to face the concerns of Brexit. As a result, the pound is weaker than other non-US currencies.


In the 4 hour chart of the British pound against the US dollar, we found that the price fell back after hitting the blue dense interval above. The current price has already stabilized above the 60-day moving average, and the MACD's DIF column is also long, so the price in the four-hour chart. After the fall, it is still expected to go higher. However, given that the overall trend of the pound's daily chart is more volatile, it is expected that the pound's higher market will be more limited. (The picture shows possible reference trends)


In the GBP/USD hourly chart, the pound fell back after a continuous rise. The current price is in a more balanced position, and it is expected to choose a new direction, and the exchange rate is expected to restart the uptrend after a downward adjustment over a trading day. The gains in the pound are weak in all non-US currencies, and the exchange rate may be limited. (The picture shows possible reference trends)

Short-term trading ideas for the pound against the dollar: investors can choose the low-end buy operation in the short-term.

Support: 1.2900, 1.2890, 1.2870, 1.2840, 1.2800
Resistance: 1.2930, 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3050

More timely market analysis, welcome everyone to come to [Famous Strategy] Ask the author of this article.

Disclaimer: Although the above analysis objectively describes the current market conditions, it does not rule out some subjective colors with dragon dance, which affects objective judgment. Investors cannot fully use the basis of the transaction and are for reference only.