Sino-Japanese trade will first drop in 11 years

According to a report released by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) on February 26, Japan's total trade with China (excluding Hong Kong) in 2009 is expected to experience its first year-on-year decline since 1998. This marks a turning point for the long-standing economic and trade relationship between the two countries, which had been growing rapidly in recent years. The forecast highlights a challenging outlook for Chinese exports to Japan, as global economic conditions have begun to impact trade flows.

The situation for exports to China has become more complex. According to a report from the Common Network on February 27, the total trade volume between China and Japan in 2008 reached $266.398 billion, representing a 12.5% increase compared to the previous year. However, the impact of the global financial crisis started to show in late 2008, with trade volumes dropping by 5% in November and 10% in December.

One major factor behind this decline is the shrinking consumer market in Europe and the United States. As a result, Chinese textile exports to these regions have dropped significantly. This downturn has also affected Japan’s textile machinery and synthetic fiber exports to China, which saw a sharp decline in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the export of Chinese electrical products—often destined for the European and American markets—has fallen, and Japanese high-end semiconductor components used in these appliances have also seen a monthly decline since September.

Moreover, due to slowing domestic consumption in China and falling prices, the export of high-value-added steel used in automotive and home appliance production has begun to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Despite these challenges, the Japanese business community remains optimistic about Japan's exports to China in 2009. In 2008, Japan's exports to China grew by 13.8%, outpacing the overall growth of Japan's foreign exports, which stood at 8.9%. According to Japan Corporate News on February 27, increased large-scale construction projects in China helped maintain steady growth in the export of construction machinery from Japanese companies. Given that machinery (19.3%) and automobiles (14.5%) account for a significant portion of Japan's foreign trade, these sectors are expected to play a key role in shaping Japan-China trade dynamics in 2009.

On the other hand, China's export prospects to Japan remain uncertain. In 2008, Japan's imports from China totaled $142.29 billion, up 11.5% from the previous year. However, in the last two months of 2008, Chinese exports to Japan began to show signs of decline. A drop in domestic demand in Japan is likely to slow down the import of Chinese textiles and clothing. Additionally, the fall in international commodity prices is expected to further reduce the total trade volume between the two nations.

Another issue affecting trade is the ongoing concern over food safety in China. These issues have not been effectively addressed, leading to a two-year decline in the export of Chinese food and agricultural products to Japan. As a result, Japan continues to be cautious about importing certain Chinese goods, which adds to the complexity of bilateral trade relations.

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