China's textile and apparel exports grew rapidly in 2011

According to customs statistics, China’s export of textiles and apparel (including textile yarn fabrics and products, textiles, clothing, and clothing accessories, the same below) was US$247.89 billion in 2011, an increase of 20% over 2010 (the same below), and the growth rate was down 3.6 from 2010. Percentage; of which, exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 94.67 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.9%; exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 153.22 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.3%.

First, the main characteristics of China's textile and apparel exports in 2011 (a) The recent export growth rate has dropped significantly. In 2011, China's textile and apparel export value hit a record high in July. The monthly export value has declined slightly. In November, it began to rebound slightly. In December, it exported 21.74 billion US dollars in the month, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year and an increase of 6.6%. The recent month-on-year growth rate has shown signs of declining. It has dropped sharply from 50.6% year-on-year in March 2011 to 7.2% in November. In December, the growth rate rebounded slightly, and the growth rate was only 9.2%.

(2) Exports from general trade accounted for more than 70%, and the growth rate of small-frontier trade exports at borders was faster. In 2011, China exported 186.98 billion U.S. dollars in textiles and clothing by general trade, which was an increase of 22.3%, accounting for 75.4% of China's total textile and clothing exports during the same period; in the same period, processing trade exported 41.73 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 16.8%. The small-scale trade mode of the border exported 8.79 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 26.2%, accounting for 3.5%; the special customs supervision zone exported 4.89 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 29.3%.

(3) Private enterprises dominate exports and grow faster. In 2011, China's private enterprises exported textiles and clothing by US$128.52 billion, an increase of 27.5%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points higher than the overall increase in China's textile and clothing exports, accounting for 51.8%; during the same period, foreign-invested enterprises exported US$70.42 billion, up by 12.4%, accounting for 28.4%; state-owned enterprises exported 38.62 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.8%, accounting for 15.6%. In addition, collective enterprises exported 9.98 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 6.4%, accounting for 4%.

(IV) Major exports to the European Union, the United States, and Japan, and rapid growth in exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa. In 2011, I exported textiles and clothing to the EU at USD 53.44 billion, an increase of 19.7% to 21.6%; U.S. at 37.66 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 11.7%, accounting for 15.2%; Japan’s 27.1 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 20.8%, accounting for 10.9%; Hong Kong’s 15.39 billion The U.S. dollar rose by 3% to 6.2%. In addition, exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa have grown rapidly. Exports to the above three countries totaled 19.86 billion U.S. dollars, 16.59 billion U.S. dollars, and 13.63 billion U.S. dollars, respectively, up 34.2%, 38.1%, and 25.1%, respectively, accounting for 8%. , 6.7% and 5.5%.

(e) Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu rank among the top three exporters. In 2011, Zhejiang exported 60.25 billion U.S. dollars of textiles and garments, an increase of 21.1%, accounting for 24.3%; Guangdong was US$42.71 billion, an increase of 13.3%, accounting for 17.2%; Jiangsu was US$40.87 billion, an increase of 21.7%, accounting for 16.5%. In the same period, Shanghai exported 20.88 billion US dollars, an increase of 17%, accounting for 8.4%; Shandong exports 20.38 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.7%, accounting for 8.2%; Fujian exports 16.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 45.6%, accounting for 6.8%.

Second, the recent major reasons for the deceleration of China's textile and apparel export growth rate (A) The economy of major economies continued to shrink, demand decline. Affected by Christmas and New Year's festive atmosphere, US consumer confidence index climbed to 64.5 in December 2011. Although it has risen in recent months, consumer confidence index is still at a relatively low historical level. In the Eurozone, the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the Eurozone in December 2011 was 46.9. Although it improved from last month, it still shrank in the fifth consecutive month, indicating that the manufacturing activity in the region will continue to be weak in early 2012. Affected by this, confidence in the economic outlook of consumers in the euro zone continued to decline, and the consumer confidence index fell to -21.2 from -20.4 in November, and fell for the sixth consecutive month.

(b) The rapid increase in overall costs has resulted in unsatisfactory order status. In December 2011, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the current trend of China's economic growth has stabilized, but the growth momentum is still relatively weak; new export orders among them The index rose by 3 percentage points from the previous month to 48.6%. In 2011, China's textile and garment companies experienced rapid changes in the market, after the brief glory in the first half of the year, orders fell sharply, inventory pressure was huge, labor costs rose, raw material prices fluctuated, and logistics costs were high and other unfavorable factors were superimposed. Many companies are forced to cut production or even stop production. According to statistics, in 2011, the cost of raw materials in most industries rose by about 20%-50% compared with 2010, and the price of raw material fabrics in the apparel industry even rose by 30%-80%. In addition, in 2011, a total of 24 provinces in the country adjusted the minimum wage standard, with an average increase of 22%; Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places responded to the “labor shortage” through “increasing wages”. In many areas, wages rose by 33%. . After Beijing took the lead in raising the minimum wage in 2012, Shenzhen announced on December 30, 2011 that the minimum wage for full-time employed workers will be raised to 1,500 yuan/month, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. According to statistics, affected by the rapid increase in the cost of production factors, in the fourth quarter of 2011, orders for textile and garment companies in the PRD generally fell by more than 10%, and in 2012 they would decline by as much as 20%-30%.

Third, the current major difficulties faced by China's textile and garment industry (a) continue to deepen the impact of *** appreciation. According to the data from the China International Airport Center, on December 30, 2011, the central parity rate of the US dollar was reported at 6.3009, which again set a new high since the exchange rate reform. At this point, the annual appreciation of the *** against the US dollar reached 5.1% in 2011. Looking back at the year, *** against major currencies such as the euro and pound sterling and emerging market currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit and the Russian ruble all experienced significant appreciation. During the same period, the currencies of other emerging economies were very different from the US dollar. According to statistics, the Indian rupee, the Brazilian real and the Russian rouble depreciated by 16.13%, 11.01% and 5.18% respectively against the US dollar in 2011; while the currencies of Asian emerging economies such as the Korean won, The Indonesian rupiah, Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit depreciated by 2.30%, 0.80%, 4.69% and 3.30% respectively against the US dollar. At present, some institutions expect the renminbi appreciation rate to shrink in 2012, but there will still be a 2%-3% appreciation rate throughout the year. In the first half of 2012, affected by the European debt crisis, the possibility of the Euro driving other non-US dollar currencies to continue to depreciate is greater. If *** continues to maintain its appreciation against the US dollar, it will have a major impact on China’s exports.

(2) International trade protectionism continues to heat up. With the development of economic globalization, international trade has become more frequent. At the same time, trade frictions have also shown rapid growth. Trade protection based on the establishment of trade-related technical barriers (TBT) has also become increasingly serious. China's three major trading partners, the European Union, the United States, and Japan’s technical trade measures have moved from the performance and quality limitations of the product itself to the development of product production, packaging, labeling, processing, and transportation. The standards are becoming more complex. In recent years, China’s direct loss of trade technical barriers has grown at an average annual rate of 15%. With the continued deterioration of the European debt crisis and the weak recovery of the U.S. economy, trade protectionism in Europe and the United States has further increased. China has become the largest target country for global anti-subsidy investigations. More than 70% of counter-subsidy surveys in the world are directed against China. According to statistics, from January to November 2011, China encountered 60 trade investigations initiated by 16 countries in the world. Various kinds of trade protection barriers are constantly increasing, and forms are constantly being updated, which has greatly raised the export threshold of China's textile and apparel products.

(3) The transfer of textile orders to neighboring countries shows clear signs. Due to factors such as the rising cost of production and operation factors, some orders from European and American markets have shifted to economies with lower wages such as Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia. With the gradual improvement of the aforementioned alliance of textile and garment production in Southeast Asia and the regional textile supply chain, the existing disadvantages of textile and apparel exports will be compensated and the competitiveness will be further enhanced, which will have a major impact on China's textile and apparel exports in the future. According to GTA data, in the first three quarters of 2011, China’s “textile apparel” market share in the three major economies of Europe, the United States and Japan was 43.8%, 37.8% and 80.9%, respectively, down 1.7, 1.6 and 2 percentage points respectively.