US stocks hit a record high, gold continued to fall 200-day moving average is facing the test

International spot gold continued to fall on Tuesday (April 24), with the US market hitting a low of $1,261.41 per ounce, the intraday lows and low prices, and the price of gold fell like a snowball. Concerns about the victory of the far-right candidate Le Pen in the French elections have gradually subsided, and investors turned to risky assets such as stocks, triggering a sell-off in gold. For the business-friendly centrist, Mark Long won the first place in the first round of voting on Sunday, and the French public opinion survey on Monday showed a decrease in the support rate for Le Pen. The data released during the day was relatively strong. The US Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board in April fell to 120.3, but it was still at a strong level. In the United States, the annualized sales of new homes in March totaled 621,000, which was higher than the expected 584,000. Month, and hit a new high since July 2016. The US Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April was 20, better than expected.

The US dollar fell on Tuesday. As of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.27, or 0.27%, to 98.76. US stocks rose on Tuesday, the Dow rose 1.18% to 21010.47 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 2384.46 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.68% to 6024.62 points, a record high. Crude oil continued to fall on Tuesday, the US oil index fell 0.19% to $49.04 per barrel; the oil index fell 0.14% to $51.53 per barrel.

Analysts said that since the first round of elections in France, gold has shifted from several positive drivers in the past week, and the market risk model has opened. The market has been mainly worried that Le Pen is strong. If it is elected, Europe will face a split crisis, but Judging from the situation after the first round of elections, the chances of Le Pen's election were greatly reduced, and the market also breathed a sigh of relief and turned to risk assets. On Tuesday, US stocks made history again. The Nasdaq broke through the 6000 mark for the first time, which led to the re-stabilization of the 21,000 mark. However, current geopolitical tensions still have some support for gold. On Tuesday, North Korea conducted live-fire exercises because US submarines stayed in South Korea, showing force and expressing concern about Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. From the gold technical point of view, the gold price has broken the support level of 1265.50 US dollars / ounce on Tuesday, will further test the 200-day moving average level of 1254.80 US dollars / ounce, if it falls below this level, it will face greater adjustment. However, investor interest in so-called safe-haven assets remains undiminished. In the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR positions increased by 0.17% to 860.17 tons on Monday; in the past two trading days, positions increased by 6 tons.

US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 120.3 but still at a strong level

According to data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday (April 25), the US consumer confidence index fell in April and was lower than expected.

Detailed data shows that the US consumer confidence index for April was 120.3, estimated at 122.5, and revised to 124.9 in March, with a previous value of 125.6.

(American Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index, Source: FX168 Financial Network)

(American Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index, Source: FX168 Financial Network)


The US consumer status index for April was 140.6, which was revised to 143.9 in March, with a previous value of 143.1.

The US consumer expectations index for April was 106.7, compared with 112.3 in March, with a previous value of 113.8.

In addition, the Consultation Council's employment difficulty index for April was 19.1, and in March it was revised to 19.1, with a previous value of 19.5. In April, the one-year inflation rate of consumers is expected to be 4.7%, which was revised to 4.7% in March, and the previous value was 4.6%.

Lynn Franco, director of the economic indicators of the Chamber of Commerce, commented that after a sharp rise in the past two months, US consumer confidence fell in April, but still at a strong level; consumers believe that the labor market in April was slightly less than the March advantage. Looking ahead, consumer optimism about short-term business conditions, employment prospects and income prospects has weakened; despite consumer decline in April, they still believe that the US economy will continue to expand in the coming months.

US new home sales jumped to an eight-month high in March, indicating that the US economy remains strong

Data released on Thursday (April 25) showed that US new home sales jumped to an eight-month high in March, indicating that despite the sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, there are still potential kinetic energy.

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce (DOC), US new home sales rose 5.8% in March from the previous month to 621,000, the highest level since July 2016, better than the expected 583,000.

(New home sales in the United States, source: FX168 financial network)

(New home sales in the United States, source: FX168 financial network)


New home sales rose 15.6% from March 2016. Economists expect new home sales to fall 0.8% last month to 583,000. New home sales accounted for approximately 9.8% of overall home sales.

New home sales have grown for the third consecutive month. The labor market continues to tighten, and the unemployment rate is at a low of 4.5%, boosting employment opportunities for young Americans and helping support the property market.

In addition, home mortgage interest rates are still at historically low levels. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is currently at a three-month low of 3.97%. New home sales also benefited from a shortage of second-hand housing in the market.

A report on Friday showed that existing home sales rose sharply 4.4% in March to a 10-year high. The strong property market indicates that the signs of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter are only temporary.

The Atlanta Fed currently expects the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to be 0.5%, and the fourth quarter last year to grow at an annual rate of 2.1%. The government will release the initial GDP of the first quarter on Friday.

Last month, sales of new independent homes in the Northeast region jumped 25.8%, compared with 24.4% in the previous month. Sales in the western region rose 16.7% to its highest level since July 2007. The southern region rose 1.6% and the central and western regions fell 4.5%.

New home stocks in the market rose 1.1% last month to 268,000, the highest level since July 2009, but new home inventory is still less than half of the 2006 property market boom.

According to the sales pace in March, it will take 5.2 months to clear the inventory on the market, down from 5.4 months in February. Six months of supply is seen as a healthy supply and demand relationship.

Another report released on Tuesday showed that in February, the price index of 20 metropolitan areas in the S&P/Case-Shiller increased by 5.9% from the same period of the previous year, the largest increase since July 2014. In January, it rose by 5.7%.

Reuters commented on the US total new home sales in March. The data said that the monthly data was significantly better than expected, and recorded an eight-month high, of which new home sales increased by 15.6% year-on-year, sales have increased for three consecutive months. The current US labor market is tightening, providing more job opportunities for young people and supporting the real estate market. Despite the sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter, the US economy still has strong momentum.

At 00:43 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1,264.46 per ounce, down $10.90, or 0.85%.

Outlook outlook

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said, “Gold has shifted from several positive drivers last week. Previously, yields were limited and we faced multiple geopolitical risks. But now with the first round of France In the past, the market risk model was opened, and the main concern was that Le Pen was strong.” Ole Hansen said that gold will be cautiously traded before this week. On Friday, the US Congress will pass the spending bill to the government in September, otherwise the US government Will face the risk of being turned off.

According to Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, but on the technical side, gold is under pressure to repair, if uncertainty disappears. "Gold's resistance is $1,290 per ounce, then $1,296 per ounce. It failed several times in the region last week. Downside support is at $1,265.50 per ounce, then the 200-day moving average is at 1,254.80 per ounce. A close below $1,240 per ounce will result in a larger adjustment."

Asset management firm ETF Securities said in a report that platinum is expected to rise modestly in the expectation of global growth and manufacturing recovery, with gold price discounts hitting record highs. But "the downside risk of platinum seems to be greater than the potential upside risk."

At 00:43 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1,264.46 per ounce, down $10.90, or 0.85%.

Proofreading: Charlotte
Proofreading: Charlotte

(Editor: Liu Xiaoman HF108)

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